Climate & Sustainability

Accurate electricity forecasting is crucial for grid stability and energy planning, especially in Benghazi, Libya, where frequent load shedding, generation deficits, and infrastructure limitations persist. This study proposes a data-driven approach to forecast electricity load, generation, and deficits for 2025 using historical data from 2019 (a year marked by instability) and 2023 (a more stable year). Multiple time series models were applied, including ARIMA, seasonal ARIMA, dynamic regression...

This article presents a novel hybrid approach using statistics and machine learning to forecast the national demand of electricity. As investment and operation of future energy systems require long-term electricity demand forecasts with hourly resolution, our mathematical model fills a gap in energy forecasting. The proposed methodology was constructed using hourly data from Ukraine's electricity consumption ranging from 2013 to 2020. To this end, we analysed the underlying structure of the hour...

The transition to sustainable energy is a key challenge of our time, requiring modifications in the entire pipeline of energy production, storage, transmission, and consumption. At every stage, new sequential decision-making challenges emerge, ranging from the operation of wind farms to the management of electrical grids or the scheduling of electric vehicle charging stations. All such problems are well suited for reinforcement learning, the branch of machine learning that learns behavior from d...

When Austrian hydropower production plummeted by 44% in early 2025 due to reduced snowpack, it exposed a critical vulnerability: standard meteorological and climatological datasets systematically fail in mountain regions that hold untapped renewable potential. This perspectives paper evaluates emerging solutions to the Alpine energy-climate data gap, analyzing datasets from global reanalyses (ERA5, 31 km) to kilometre-scale Digital Twins (Climate DT, Extremes DT, 4.4 km), regional reanalyses (AR...

Energy (load, wind, photovoltaic) forecasting is significant in the power industry as it can provide a reference for subsequent tasks such as power grid dispatch, thus bringing huge economic benefits. However, there are many differences between energy forecasting and traditional time series forecasting. On the one hand, traditional time series mainly focus on capturing characteristics like trends and cycles. In contrast, the energy series is largely influenced by many external factors, such as m...

As a result of increasing population and globalization, the demand for energy has greatly risen. Therefore, accurate energy consumption forecasting has become an essential prerequisite for government planning, reducing power wastage and stable operation of the energy management system. In this work we present a comparative analysis of major machine learning models for time series forecasting of household energy consumption. Specifically, we use Weka, a data mining tool to first apply models on h...

Electricity load consumption may be extremely complex in terms of profile patterns, as it depends on a wide range of human factors, and it is often correlated with several exogenous factors, such as the availability of renewable energy and the weather conditions. The first goal of this paper is to investigate the performance of a large selection of different types of forecasting models in predicting the electricity load consumption within the short time horizon of a day or few hours ahead. Such ...

Accurate quantification of Gross Primary Production (GPP) is crucial for understanding terrestrial carbon dynamics. It represents the largest atmosphere-to-land CO$_2$ flux, especially significant for forests. Eddy Covariance (EC) measurements are widely used for ecosystem-scale GPP quantification but are globally sparse. In areas lacking local EC measurements, remote sensing (RS) data are typically utilised to estimate GPP after statistically relating them to in-situ data. Deep learning offers ...

Decision-making in building energy systems critically depends on the predictive accuracy of relevant time-series models. In scenarios lacking extensive data from a target building, foundation models (FMs) represent a promising technology that can leverage prior knowledge from vast and diverse pre-training datasets to construct accurate probabilistic predictors for use in decision-making tools. This paper investigates the applicability and fine-tuning strategies of time-series foundation models (...

Accurate short-term energy consumption forecasting for commercial buildings is crucial for smart grid operations. While smart meters and deep learning models enable forecasting using past data from multiple buildings, data heterogeneity from diverse buildings can reduce model performance. The impact of increasing dataset heterogeneity in time series forecasting, while keeping size and model constant, is understudied. We tackle this issue using the ComStock dataset, which provides synthetic energ...

Accurate load forecasting is critical for efficient and reliable operations of the electric power system. A large part of electricity consumption is affected by weather conditions, making weather information an important determinant of electricity usage. Personal appliances and industry equipment also contribute significantly to electricity demand with temporal patterns, making time a useful factor to consider in load forecasting. This work develops several machine learning (ML) models that take...

The planning and operation of renewable energy, especially wind power, depend crucially on accurate, timely, and high-resolution weather information. Coarse-grid global numerical weather forecasts are typically downscaled to meet these requirements, introducing challenges of scale inconsistency, process representation error, computation cost, and entanglement of distinct uncertainty sources from chaoticity, model bias, and large-scale forcing. We address these challenges by learning the climatol...

Reducing domestic energy demand is central to climate mitigation and fuel poverty strategies, yet the impact of energy efficiency interventions is highly heterogeneous. Using a causal machine learning model trained on nationally representative data of the English housing stock, we estimate average and conditional treatment effects of wall insulation on gas consumption, focusing on distributional effects across energy burden subgroups. While interventions reduce gas demand on average (by as much ...

Climate change will impact wind and therefore wind power generation with largely unknown effect and magnitude. Climate models can provide insights and should be used for long-term power planning. In this work we use Gaussian processes to predict power output given wind speeds from a global climate model and compare the aggregated predictions to actual power generation. Analyzing past climate model data supports the use of CMIP6 climate model data for multi-decadal wind power predictions and high...

Understanding why travel behavior differs between residents of urban centers and suburbs is key to sustainable urban planning. Especially in light of rapid urban growth, identifying housing locations that minimize travel demand and induced CO2 emissions is crucial to mitigate climate change. While the built environment plays an important role, the precise impact on travel behavior is obfuscated by residential self-selection. To address this issue, we propose a double machine learning approach to...

Energy is a critical driver of modern economic systems. Accurate energy price forecasting plays an important role in supporting decision-making at various levels, from operational purchasing decisions at individual business organizations to policy-making. A significant body of literature has looked into energy price forecasting, investigating a wide range of methods to improve accuracy and inform these critical decisions. Given the evolving landscape of forecasting techniques, the literature lac...

Nowadays, many large-scale land-cover (LC) products have been released, however, current LC products for China either lack a fine resolution or nationwide coverage. With the rapid urbanization of China, there is an urgent need for creating a very-high-resolution (VHR) national-scale LC map for China. In this study, a novel 1-m resolution LC map of China covering $9,600,000 km^2$, called SinoLC-1, was produced by using a deep learning framework and multi-source open-access data. To efficiently ge...

Accurate electricity load forecasting is essential for grid stability, resource optimization, and renewable energy integration. While transformer-based deep learning models like TimeGPT have gained traction in time-series forecasting, their effectiveness in long-term electricity load prediction remains uncertain. This study evaluates forecasting models ranging from classical regression techniques to advanced deep learning architectures using data from the ESD 2025 competition. The dataset includ...

Selecting the right deep learning model for power grid forecasting is challenging, as performance heavily depends on the data available to the operator. This paper presents a comprehensive benchmark of five modern neural architectures: two state space models (PowerMamba, S-Mamba), two Transformers (iTransformer, PatchTST), and a traditional LSTM. We evaluate these models on hourly electricity demand across six diverse US power grids for forecast windows between 24 and 168 hours. To ensure a fair...

Accurate short-term energy consumption forecasting is essential for efficient power grid management, resource allocation, and market stability. Traditional time-series models often fail to capture the complex, non-linear dependencies and external factors affecting energy demand. In this study, we propose a forecasting approach based on Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) and their advanced variant, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. Our methodology integrates historical energy consumption data...