Credit card score prediction using machine learning models: A new dataset

Abstract

The use of credit cards has recently increased, creating an essential need for credit card assessment methods to minimize potential risks. This study investigates the utilization of machine learning (ML) models for credit card default prediction system. The main goal here is to investigate the best-performing ML model for new proposed credit card scoring dataset. This new dataset includes credit card transaction histories and customer profiles, is proposed and tested using a variety of machine learning algorithms, including logistic regression, decision trees, random forests, multi-layer perceptron (MLP) neural network, XGBoost, and LightGBM. To prepare the data for machine learning models, we perform data pre-processing, feature extraction, feature selection, and data balancing techniques. Experimental results demonstrate that MLP outperforms logistic regression, decision trees, random forests, LightGBM, and XGBoost in terms of predictive performance in true positive rate, achieving an impressive area under the curve (AUC) of 86.7% and an accuracy rate of 91.6%, with a recall rate exceeding 80%. These results indicate the superiority of MLP in predicting the default customers and assessing the potential risks. Furthermore, they help banks and other financial institutions in predicting loan defaults at an earlier stage.