ProCause: Generating Counterfactual Outcomes to Evaluate Prescriptive Process Monitoring Methods

Abstract

Prescriptive Process Monitoring (PresPM) is the subfield of Process Mining that focuses on optimizing processes through real-time interventions based on event log data. Evaluating PresPM methods is challenging due to the lack of ground-truth outcomes for all intervention actions in datasets. A generative deep learning approach from the field of Causal Inference (CI), RealCause, has been commonly used to estimate the outcomes for proposed intervention actions to evaluate a new policy. However, RealCause overlooks the temporal dependencies in process data, and relies on a single CI model architecture, TARNet, limiting its effectiveness. To address both shortcomings, we introduce ProCause, a generative approach that supports both sequential (e.g., LSTMs) and non-sequential models while integrating multiple CI architectures (S-Learner, T-Learner, TARNet, and an ensemble). Our research using a simulator with known ground truths reveals that TARNet is not always the best choice; instead, an ensemble of models offers more consistent reliability, and leveraging LSTMs shows potential for improved evaluations when temporal dependencies are present. We further validate ProCause's practical effectiveness through a real-world data analysis, ensuring a more reliable evaluation of PresPM methods.