SCOPE: Sequential Causal Optimization of Process Interventions

Abstract

Prescriptive Process Monitoring (PresPM) recommends interventions during business processes to optimize key performance indicators (KPIs). In realistic settings, interventions are rarely isolated: organizations need to align sequences of interventions to jointly steer the outcome of a case. Existing PresPM approaches fall short in this respect. Many focus on a single intervention decision, while others treat multiple interventions independently, ignoring how they interact over time. Methods that do address these dependencies depend either on simulation or data augmentation to approximate the process to train a Reinforcement Learning (RL) agent, which can create a reality gap and introduce bias. We introduce SCOPE, a PresPM approach that learns aligned sequential intervention recommendations. SCOPE employs backward induction to estimate the effect of each candidate intervention action, propagating its impact from the final decision point back to the first. By leveraging causal learners, our method can utilize observational data directly, unlike methods that require constructing process approximations for reinforcement learning. Experiments on both an existing synthetic dataset and a new semi-synthetic dataset show that SCOPE consistently outperforms state-of-the-art PresPM techniques in optimizing the KPI. The novel semi-synthetic setup, based on a real-life event log, is provided as a reusable benchmark for future work on sequential PresPM.